The order after the first order
On the first Friday of a fictional Indore launch, a distributor calls to say 40 shops have taken stock. The founder is ready to double the next shipment. One shopkeeper tells the field rep she put the snacks near the till for a week, then moved them when the first cartons failed to sell. Both accounts can be true. The distributor counted placement, while the shopkeeper saw demand.
What the analyst checked
Track three events separately: delivery to a store, sale to a shopper, and the store’s next order. Compare stores that received stock at about the same time. A shop that has only had two selling days has had less opportunity to reorder than one stocked three weeks ago. Ask the distributor for the count of eligible stores and their repeat orders before interpreting a reorder percentage.
The next decision
Use a small shipment to validate repeat demand. Record the number of stores still ordering after the launch promotion ends, the contribution per repeat order and how much credit remains outstanding. Agree what would justify expanding the route before seeing the numbers.